Update: Canada Employment Rises By 60,000 In September, Defying Forecasts As Jobless Rate Steady At 7.1%

08:52 AM EDT, 10/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Employment rose by 60,000, or 0.3%, in September, while the employment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 60.6%, Statistics Canada said Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%.

Among the highlights, Statistics Canada said employment rose in manufacturing as well as in health care and social assistance. The largest job gains were recorded in Alberta, while the share of people working in jobs unrelated to their education or training edged higher.

Employment increased among core-aged workers (25 to 54 years), with gains for both women (+76,000; +1.2%) and men (+33,000; +0.5%) in September, following declines in August. The unemployment rate fell among core-aged men but rose for people aged 55 and older, while it also increased among young students.

The overall gain easily topped economists' expectations.

Scotiabank in its 'Daily Points' note, noted estimates were "all over the map for a noisy household survey" that has a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 57,000 around estimated monthly changes in employment. Scotia noted the highest forecast was for a gain of 20,000 with the lowest for a loss of 50,000 (Scotia) and a median estimate that was basically flat (5,000). It also noted four estimates were negatives and five were positives, but only two of those five were "meaningfully positive".

Elsewhere, Shelly Kaushik noted that BMO was looking for the Canadian economy to add 5,000 jobs in September, a modest increase following two months of significant losses totaling over 106,000.

However, BMO said, the return to job growth will likely not be enough to bring the unemployment rate down from the cycle high of 7.1%. While this report isn't expected to fundamentally shift the Bank of Canada's view of a weak labour market, any further downside surprises could raise the odds of a follow-up rate cut later this month, BMO added.

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