Canada Employment Rises By 60,000 In September, Defying Forecasts As Jobless Rate Steady At 7.1%

08:40 AM EDT, 10/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Employment rose by 60,000, or 0.3%, in September, while the employment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 60.6%, Statistics Canada said Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%.

The gain easily topped economists' expectations.

Scotiabank in its 'Daily Points' note, noted estimates were "all over the map for a noisy household survey" that has a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 57,000 around estimated monthly changes in employment. Scotia noted the highest forecast was for a gain of 20,000 with the lowest for a loss of 50,000 (Scotia) and a median estimate that was basically flat (5,000). It also noted four estimates were negatives and five were positives, but only two of those five were "meaningfully positive".

Elsewhere, Shelly Kaushik noted that BMO was looking for the Canadian economy to add 5,000 jobs in September, a modest increase following two months of significant losses totaling over 106,000.

However, BMO said, the return to job growth will likely not be enough to bring the unemployment rate down from the cycle high of 7.1%. While this report isn't expected to fundamentally shift the Bank of Canada's view of a weak labour market, any further downside surprises could raise the odds of a follow-up rate cut later this month, BMO added.

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