Global Economy More Important Than Gold for Australian Dollar, Says Commerzbank

09:50 AM EDT, 10/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Due to the sharp rise in the price of gold, Australia's gold exports have also increased significantly in recent weeks, said Commerzbank.

In the first eight months of this year, the share of Australian gold exports in total exports rose to over 10%. This is the first time since 1988, when data collection began.

This doesn't even take into account the rise in the price of gold in recent weeks. As a consequence, it can be assumed that gold's share of total exports is likely to continue to rise, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Commerzbank's commodities research even anticipates a permanently higher gold price than the Australian department, which could provide even stronger support for exports.

This is likely to provide marginal support for the Australian dollar (AUD), but hasn't yet led to a resurgence in overall Australian exports, stated the bank. In August, exports were still 3% below the previous year's level, and in the first eight months of the year, exports were around 1% below the previous year's level.

More important than gold for Australia are exports of industrial metals, iron ore, and energy, which together account for over 60% of exports. An improvement in the global economic situation would, as such, help the Australian dollar more than a sustained rise in the price of gold, pointed out Commerzbank.

However, the bank doesn't currently expect this to happen. As a consequence, the Australian dollar is likely to remain "weak."

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