September US Median Inflation Expectations Rise for Short Term, Unchanged Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

11:15 AM EDT, 10/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth increased to a 3.4% gain in September from a 3.2% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday.

The median inflation expectations remained at a 3% gain for the fifth straight month for the three-year period and increased to a 3% gain from a 2.9% gain for five years ahead.

The median inflation uncertainty slowed to 3.3% from 3.6% in the one-year horizon and remained at 3.4% for the three-year outlook.

Median home price change expectations remained at a 3% gain for the fifth consecutive month while home price uncertainty was unchanged from a 3.9% increase in the previous month.

The median one-year expectations commodity prices growth rose for gas, food, medical care, rent and gold but fell for the cost of college education. The reading for food was the highest since March 2023.

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