BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:31 AM EDT, 10/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is scheduled to release its international merchandise trade data for August at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Canada's merchandise trade deficit is expected to widen to $6.0 billion in August from $4.9 billion in July, noted the bank. Lower energy prices will weigh on the value of exports, while a negative manufacturing flash point to weaker imports and non-energy exports.

United States tariffs on Canada rose to 35% on Aug. 1, although BMO expects a limited impact as most Canadian shipments are exempt under the USMCA trade agreement.

That was the same day that the U.S. implemented 50% tariffs on some imported copper products, though the bank believes Canadian copper exports largely avoided this levy.

Looking ahead, future releases could be impacted by the U.S. government shutdown since Statistics Canada uses U.S. customs data as an input, added BMO. Depending on how long it lasts, the September release may be postponed and could affect the trade estimates in the Q3 gross domestic product report.

The Ivey PMI for September is also out at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, pointed out the bank.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Washington on Tuesday to meet with President Donald Trump, so BMO will have an eye on any headlines that come out of those talks -- even though the Canadian side has already tried to set expectations low.

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