KBRA Releases Monthly CMBS Trend Watch

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- KBRA releases the September 2025 issue of CMBS Trend Watch.

CMBS private label issuance continued at a healthy pace in September as 14 deals priced ($8.9 billion). For Q3, 48 deals ($28.3 billion) went out the door, including 37 single-borrower (SB) ($21.2 billion) and 11 conduit ($7.2 billion). Through September on a year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) comparison, issuance increased by 19.6%.

Historically, the fourth quarter is typically the year?s busiest quarter, and this year seems no different based on our current pipeline. Furthermore, with the Federal Reserve signaling that two more rate cuts could come by the end of 2025, on top of its first rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in 2025, the market is poised for continued growth. However, if the government shutdown drags on, it could bring uncertainty and volatility to the markets, which could temper this momentum. Based on our current visibility, up to 20 deals could launch in October, including 10 SB, six conduit, three commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and one Freddie Mac (Agency).

In September, KBRA published pre-sales for 13 deals ($10.4 billion), including six SB ($5 billion), three conduits ($2.2 billion), two Agency ($2.3 billion), one small balance commercial (SC) ($469.3 million), and one CRE CLO (CL) ($451.6 million). September?s surveillance activity included rating reviews of 463 securities issued in connection with 40 transactions, including 28 conduits, six Agency, two SBs, two CRE CLOs, one large loan (LL), and one SC. Of the 463 ratings, 396 were affirmed (85.5%) and 67 were downgraded (14.5%). In addition, 29 ratings were placed on Watch Downgrade.

This month's edition also highlights recent KBRA research publications that cover various topical issues.

Click here to view the report.

Recent Publications

• CMBS Servicer Advances: Curtailments Accelerate
• Conduit CMBS Default and Loss Study Update: 2.0 Begins to Make Its Mark
• Conduit Subordination: Follow the Credit Metrics
• KBRA CMBS Loss Compendium Update: June 2025
• Churn Rates in Managed CRE CLOs: Vintage Effect
• New Vintage Office Loans: Rising Credit Quality Amid Lingering Uncertainty
• Data Centers: A Comparison of ABS and CMBS Structures
• CMBS Trend Watch: August 2025
• CMBS Loan Performance Trends: September 2025

About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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Source: Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC