RBC Warns U.S. Shutdown Could Disrupt Canada's Trade Data Ahead of BoC Decision

10:09 AM EDT, 10/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- This week's Canadian international trade report will also be closely watched - along with the Labour Force Survey - ahead of the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on Oct. 29, following last month's cut, RBC said.

The BoC made the move in September and flagged the evolution of exports as a key factor in assessing the need for further easing, given uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy.

Tracking exports could become more difficult if the U.S. government shutdown persists, the bank added. Statistics Canada relies on import data from the U.S. Census Bureau to compile export estimates, which won't be available while the shutdown continues.

For now, RBC's understanding is that the data for Canadian trade in August had already been collected and will be released as scheduled Tuesday. The bank expects the Canadian trade deficit to widen slightly to $5.4 billion, although in large part due to a 4.8% pullback in energy prices.

Other important detailed data from U.S. sources, for example, tariff revenues collected by country and product, won't be available until the U.S. Census Bureau is back on the job.

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