Factbox-US holiday sales growth to be muted this year, forecasts show

(Reuters) -U.S. retailers brace for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves?shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts.

The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday?and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales.

In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season.?While Walmart and Macy's raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations.

Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys:

SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS

PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers

ers projected?the are expected to

steepest spend about $1,552

year-over-year drop per person on

in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3%

spending since the from last year.

pandemic, primarily

fueled by?Gen Z

shoppers pulling

back amid economic

uncertainty.

Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during

are expected to the November

grow at their 2025-January 2026

slowest pace since period are expected

the pandemic. to rise between

2.9% and 3.4%,

compared with a

4.2% increase last

year, marking?the

slowest growth

since the 2018-2019

season.

E-commerce sales

are projected to

increase between 7%

and 9% during the

season,

compared?with last

year's 8% growth.

In-store sales are

projected to rise

between 2% and

2.2%, compared to a

3.4% growth in

2024.

Salesforce The software Online spending is

company projects a expected?to rise

slower growth in 2.1% to $288

online spending billion, lower than

between November 1 a 4% increase in

and December 31. the same period

last year.?

Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are

Economics Institute expected to rise

expects U.S. 3.6% between

holiday sales November 1 and

growth to moderate December 24 this

this year. Still, year, compared to a

it will be driven 4.1% growth in the

by promotions, as same period last

consumers seek the year.

best value for Online sales are

their money amid expected to jump

broader 7.9% this holiday

macroeconomic season, compared to

uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last

year.

In-store sales are

projected to grow

2.3%. It rose 2.8%

in the 2024 holiday

season.

Adobe U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales

Analytics sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to

slower pace this $253.4 billion

year, Adobe between November 1

Analytics projects, and December 31,

as macroeconomic compared with an

uncertainty 8.7% rise last

continues to year.

pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales

spending. is?expected to rise

6.3% to $14.2

billion.

Consumer spending

between October 7

and October 8 is

expected to be $9

billion, a 6.2%

increase compared

with last year, as

the data firm

expects shoppers to

kick off some of

their early holiday

purchases during

Amazon's October

Big Deal Days.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)