EMERGING MARKETS-Rupiah, peso lead FX losses as holiday lull, rate caution temper trade

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/06/25 12:58 AM EDT

        *
      Jakarta stocks touch record but last trading flat


        *
      Singapore, Malaysia shares inch higher


        *
      Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso modestly lower



    By Rishav Chatterjee
       Oct 6 (Reuters) - Emerging Asian currencies started the
week on the back foot, with the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine
peso leading losses on Monday, as holiday-thinned trading and
caution ahead of rate decisions around the region sidelined most
investors.
    Regional stocks moved in tight ranges as the closure of
China's markets, a major driver of activity, tempered risk
appetite and reduced momentum.
    Indonesia's benchmark index opened at a record high
but pared gains to trade flat, while Thailand's benchmark
 dropped 0.4%.
    The MSCI indexes tracking EM Asia equities
and a broader gauge tracking Asia-Pacific equities excluding
Japan both slipped half a percentage point from
their 2021-highs, scaled the day before.
    Equity markets in Taiwan and South Korea,
two of the main beneficiaries of the AI-driven rally in recent
months and heavyweights in the indexes, were closed for public
holidays.
    Investor attention turned squarely to Japan, where the yen
 tumbled and stocks surged more than 4% after fiscal and
monetary dove Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling
party.
    "There was a kind of resurrection of Abe trade in Japan
markets, which will sway the market sentiment across Asia," said
Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale.
    In the currency market, the peso fell 0.3% while the
Singapore dollar and the Indonesian rupiah
dropped 0.3% each. The Thai baht inched higher while
the Malaysian ringgit edged lower.
    Traders are now looking ahead to monetary policy decisions
from the Philippine and Thai central banks later this week.
    The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) lowered interest
rates by 25 basis points in August for the third straight
easing. The country has been grappling with a widening
corruption scandal that has triggered mass protests, weighing on
both the peso and local stocks. Still, the economy continues to
post steady growth, with inflation comfortably within target.
    Analysts appear divided over how the BSP might move. Maybank
and DBS analysts are expecting the central bank to hold while
Standard Chartered expects an easing.
    In contrast, with growth momentum softening in Thailand,
investors broadly expect a 25-basis-point cut by the Bank of
Thailand under its new dovish governor.
    Maybank anticipates just one more 25-basis-point rate cut
this year, as the governor continues efforts to bolster growth -
potentially as early as next week.
    Among stock markets, shares in Singapore and Malaysia
 edged higher while equities in Philippines
fell 1%.

    HIGHLIGHTS:
    ** Indonesian 10-year benchmark flat at 6.327%
    ** Thai Sept headline CPI drops 0.72% y/y
 Asia stock indexes
  and currencies at
      0423 GMT
 COUNTRY    FX RIC    FX DAILY   FX YTD %   INDEX   STOCKS  STOCKS
                          %                         DAILY   YTD %
                                                      %
  Japan                 -1.80     +4.69              4.22   21.35
  China    India                 +0.03     -3.53              0.14    5.43
 Indonesi               -0.36     -3.01             -0.01   14.65
    a
 Malaysia               -0.14     +6.08              0.05   -0.40
 Philippi               -0.33     -0.01             -0.96   -7.33
   nes
 S.Korea   Singapor               -0.26     +5.67              0.09   16.59
    e
  Taiwan                 --       +7.77               --    16.18
 Thailand               +0.07     +6.06             -0.34   -7.93

 (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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