CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar weakens as factory woes support BoC rate cut bets

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/01/25 02:28 PM EDT

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Canadian dollar falls 0.2% against the greenback

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Trades in a range of 1.3907 to 1.3957

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Manufacturing PMI falls to 47.7 in September

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Bond yields trade mixed across the curve

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, moving closer to a recent four-month low, as domestic data showed a deeper downturn in the manufacturing sector.

The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3945 per U.S. dollar, or 71.71 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3907 to 1.3957. On Friday, the currency touched a four-month low at 1.3958, its weakest level since May 20.

Canada's manufacturing sector contracted at a steeper pace in September as an uncertain trading environment weighed on production and new orders. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.7 in September from 48.3 in August.

"Softer PMI data in Canada added to some expectations of another cut by the BoC," said Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities.

The Bank of Canada expects to release baseline projections for the economy and inflation with its monetary policy report on October 29, its summary of deliberations showed.

Investors see a 55% chance the BoC will lower interest rates at that meeting. Last month, the central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its first cut since March.

The U.S. dollar clawed back its earlier decline against a basket of major currencies as the U.S. Supreme Court left Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook in place for now, despite a Justice Department request to remove her immediately.

The news eased concerns around the Fed's credibility, Bharadwaj said.

A 16-week low for oil, one of Canada's major exports, added to headwinds for the loonie as a U.S. government shutdown fed worries about the global economy. U.S. crude oil futures were trading 1% lower at $61.67 a barrel.

Canadian bond yields were mixed across the curve as trading resumed after a market holiday on Tuesday. The 10-year was little changed at 3.187%. (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Sergio Non)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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