No Reason to Change ECB Rates Due to Eurozone Inflation, Says Berenberg

08:37 AM EDT, 09/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Since spring this year, eurozone inflation has fluctuated closely around the 2.0% year-over-year target, said Berenberg.

While inflation has likely increased in September, judging by Tuesday's data from key member states, such a short-term uptick would still be no reason for the European Central Bank to shift its policy stance, in Berenberg's view.

The bank maintains its call that the ECB will keep the deposit rate steady at 2% for now. At the margin, the inflation data reduces the risk that the ECB may cut rates again in late 2025, as some observers still project.

Berenberg expects it will take the ECB until mid-2027 before it starts to hike rates again in response to re-emerging inflation pressures. The deposit rate could then reach 3% in early 2028.

Member states representing more than 80% of the total have already published their preliminary inflation numbers ahead of the eurozone aggregate, which is due on Wednesday. On average in those countries, year-over-year inflation increased by 0.21ppt.

This suggests it's a close run whether eurozone inflation for September will be rounded up to 2.3% year over year or down to 2.2%, after 2.04% in August, added the bank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.