US Dollar Falls Early Tuesday Before Busy Data Schedule; Government Shutdown Looking More Likely

07:40 AM EDT, 09/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Tuesday, except for a gain versus the Canadian dollar, before a busy schedule of economic data releases, starting with weekly Redbook same-store sales at 8:55 am ET.

Home price data for July follows at 9:00 am ET and the Chicago purchasing managers' index for September is due to be released at 9:45 am ET.

Job openings data for August and consumer confidence data for September are due to be released at 10:00 am ET, followed by the Dallas Federal Reserve's nonmanufacturing reading for September at 10:30 am ET.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is expected to speak at 1:30 pm ET and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is set to speak at 7:10 pm ET.

The odds of a US government shutdown are looking more likely, with the midnight deadline rapidly approaching without agreement. The two sides often pass a temporary extension at the last minute, but the two sides appear further apart than normal at this point.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Tuesday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.1746 from 1.1727 at the Monday US close and 1.1720 at the same time Monday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Tuesday's schedule, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 8:50 am ET, followed by ECB policy board member Frank Elderson at 9:00 am ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Oct. 30.

GBP/USD rose to 1.3435 from 1.3434 at the Monday US close and 1.3428 at the same time Monday morning. UK gross domestic product growth slowed in Q2 from the previous quarter but the year-over-year rate accelerated, according to data released overnight. Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden is due to speak at 8:00 am ET, followed BoE policy board member Catherine Mann at 9:25 am ET and policy board member Sarah Breeden at 11:30 am ET. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Nov. 6.

USD/JPY fell to 148.0799 from 148.6317 at the Monday US close and 148.6864 at the same time Monday morning. Japanese industrial production declined in August, but forecasts for September and October show solid growth, while Japanese retail sales fell in August, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29.

USD/CAD rose to 1.3924 from 1.3921 at the Monday US close but was below a level of 1.3929 at the same time Monday morning. There are no Canadian data on Tuesday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29.

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