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SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

BY MT Newswires | TREASURY | 09/30/25 05:58 AM EDT

05:58 AM EDT, 09/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale in its early Tuesday economic news summary pointed out:

-- The US dollar (USD) and United States Treasury yields stay lower overnight Monday, gold marches on to new high as the U.S. government shutdown hangs over markets. Polymarket estimates a 79% probability of a shutdown by Wednesday. Congress faces a funding deadline of Tuesday.

--The Reserve Bank of Australia leaves CRT on hold at 3.60%. Statement flags slower decline in underlying inflation and stronger domestic data, maintains data dependency, three-year AGB yield +6bps to 3.60%, the highest since May. AUD/USD bid above 0.6600.

-- China's official manufacturing PMI improves to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, services fell to 50.0 from 50.3.

-- Day ahead: U.S. JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence. Federal Reserve speakers Jefferson and Goolsbee. European Cental Bank's Rehn, Lagarde and Nagel. CPI for Germany and Italy. Bank of England's Lombardelli and Breeden. Colombia's central bank (Ban Rep) forecast on hold at 9.25%. Poland's CPI.

-- Nikkei -0.25%, EUR 10-year IRS -1bp at 2.67%, Brent crude -0.8% at $67.4/barrel, Gold +0.8% at $3,859/oz.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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