Cineplex Outperform Rating Confirmed ,Target Cut at National Bank of Canada

01:37 PM EDT, 09/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank of Canada on Monday maintained its outperform rating on the shares of Cineplex (CPXGF) while cutting its target price to $13.00 from $13.50 as it provided a preview for the company's third-quarter results.

The bank noted that box office in July was up 0.4% and down 27% in August and said it estimates it to grow 8.5% in September and fall 8.5% for Q3 to $160 million.

The bank had highlighted in its Sept. 8 flash that the Q3 box office was tracking "below expectations" due to absence of blockbusters post-July.

"The lack of operating leverage again compels us to materially contract our Adj. EBITDAaL and we now forecast $35M (was $69M), with Adj. EBITDA to $78M from $111M (CE $96M)," said analyst Adam Shine.

The bank continues to expect CGX's box office in Q4 to grow 15% to $170 million, with adjusted EBITDAaL $67 million and adjusted EBITDA $111 million.

"Despite some of the disappointment of 2025 which hasn't lived up to expectations, industry optimism persists heading into Q4 and especially looking out to 2026 which features a release slate of more films and numerous blockbusters," said Shine.

National Bank also said that attendance has been underperforming, so the bank reduced 2025 versus 2019 to 67% from 70% and 2026 by -3 pts to 70.5%.

"As we introduce our 2027E, we assume box office revs +2% and attendance at 70.6% of 2019," added Shine. "CGX's scenario of returning Adj. EBITDAaL to or above what it did in 2019 is based on attendance at a level of 75%-80% which isn't seemingly materializing, thus expected margins keep needing to be dialed back rather materially."

Price: 11.90, Change: -0.35, Percent Change: -2.86

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