Spin Master Outperform Rating Confirmed, Target Cut, at National Bank of Canada

01:05 PM EDT, 09/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank of Canada on Thursday maintained its outperform rating on the shares of Spin Master (SNMSF) while cutting its target price to C$27.00 from C$29.00 and provided an earnings preview for the company's third quarter.

The bank said it is not clear how some late September shipments may or not fall into October. It noted Spin Master (SNMSF) acknowledged at an investor conference on Sept. 25 that "the effect from the shift in retailers taking orders via domestic delivery rather than FOB was having an even greater impact than expected, such that more toy sales will shift into 4Q and possibly even 1Q26".

The bank further noted that planogram resets by retailers that usually occur in August & September are being delayed until early October and that the recent typhoon in China has not helped.

"TOY, per Circana, grew POS +1% in July/August, while global industry POS was -1% due to United States -2%," said analyst Adam Shine. "We reduced our top line for 2025 and reset estimates lower thereafter, while contracting our Adj. EBITDA margin to 17.4% in 2025 (was 18.8%) vs. 20.5% in 2024 and to 20.3% in 2026 (was 20.8%)."

The bank forecasts gross product sales (GPS) to fall 25% to US$692 million in the third quarter, total revenues to fall 22% to US$688 million and adjusted EBITDA to fall 38% to US$172 million for a margin of 25% vs. 31.3%.

Price: 20.16, Change: -0.82, Percent Change: -3.91

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