US Equity Indexes Lower as Economic Data Pares Rate-Cut Expectations

04:14 PM EDT, 09/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes were lower on Thursday as an upward revision to US GDP growth and a dip in jobless claims complicated the Fed's rate-cut scenario. The odds of a 25 basis-point rate cut in late October fell to 85.5% from 91.9% on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"The latest slew of data supports the call from the more hawkish members of the [Federal Open Market] Committee to cease additional rate cuts from here and continue to focus on reinstating price stability," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a Thursday note.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 22,384.6, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 6,604.8, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.38% lower at 45,947.3. Most sectors fell, with health and consumer discretionary leading the decliners. The energy sector led the gainers.

The CBOE Volatility Index rose 3.21% to 16.70.

Most Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points to 4.17% and the two-year rate 6.3 basis points higher at 3.66%.

Gold futures rose 0.26% to $3,777.9.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.35% to $65.22 a barrel.

In economic news, US real gross domestic product for Q2 rose at an annual rate of 3.8%, up from a 0.6% drop in Q1, and higher than the 3.3% forecast in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The Bureau of Economic Analysis highlighted in the Thursday report that the better-than-expected print could be attributed to an acceleration in consumer spending. US initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 20 fell to 218,000 from upwardly revised 232,000 in the prior week, and below the 233,000 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased 2.9% to $312.1 billion, up from a 2.7% decline in July, and higher than the 0.3% drop expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The advance international goods trade deficit in August was $85.5 billion, down 16.8% from $102.8 billion in July, and lower than the $95.7 billion expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The report indicated a considerable decline in imports and a smaller drop in exports.

The National Association of Realtors revealed on Thursday that the rate of US existing home sales declined by 0.2% in August to 4 million from 4.01 million in July, and above the 3.95 million rate expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed's monthly manufacturing index rose to a reading of 4 in September from 1 in August, indicating faster expansion in the sector.

In company news, Intel (INTC) shares rose 8.8%, the top performer on Nasdaq and the S&P 500, after Bloomberg reported late Wednesday that the chipmaker is seeking an investment from Apple (AAPL) to bolster its business as part of turnaround efforts. Apple (AAPL) shares gained 1.8%.

CarMax (KMX) shares fell 20%, the steepest decline in the S&P 500, after fiscal Q2 earnings and net sales missed consensus estimates. The company reported net earnings Thursday of $0.64 per diluted share versus a FactSet estimate of $1.01. Total net sales and operating revenue were $6.59 billion versus FactSet's consensus of $7.01 billion.

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