OECD Lifts 2025 Global, US Growth Projections Amid Pre-Tariff Front-Loading Boost

11:00 AM EDT, 09/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, raised its global and US economic growth forecasts for 2025, saying the macro landscape benefited from front-loading ahead of higher tariffs.

The OECD now expects world gross domestic product to grow by 3.2% this year, up from its June projection of 2.9%, but a drop from last year's 3.3% rate. For next year, the organization continues to anticipate 2.9% global growth.

"Global growth proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging markets but also the United States," according to the OECD report released Tuesday. "Industrial production and trade were buoyed by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs."

The full effects of these tariffs, however, are yet to be felt, with signs of softening appearing in some labor markets, including in the US.

American GDP growth is expected to hit 1.8% this year, up from the June forecast of 1.6% but sharply down from last year's 2.8% expansion, the OECD said. The organization still expects the world's biggest economy to grow 1.5% next year.

"Strong investment growth in high technology sectors is more than offset by higher tariff rates and a drop in net immigration," the OECD said.

GDP growth in China is now estimated at 4.9% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, up from the OECD's prior forecasts of 4.7% and 4.3%.

US President Donald Trump said Friday he had "a very productive call" with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, adding that the two sides made progress on issues including trade.

"To strengthen economic growth prospects, a key priority is to ensure a lasting resolution to trade tensions," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a statement. "We recommend that governments engage productively with one another to make international trading arrangements fairer and function better, in a way that preserves the economic benefits of open markets and rules-based global trade."

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