Scotiabank Previews This Week's Policy Meeting at The Mexico Central Bank

11:40 AM EDT, 09/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Mexico's central bank (Banxico) weighs in with a policy decision on Thursday, said Scotiabank.

A Reuters survey showed economists unanimously expecting a 25bps rate cut to 7.5%, noted the bank. That would extend the easing cycle to a cumulative 375bps.

Guidance provided at the Aug. 21 meeting that accompanied a 25bps rate cut shifted more to the affirmative in replacing wording that policy was merely being 'calibrated' to now how it was "deemed appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle."

Another reason for the cut is that while it doesn't always follow the Federal Reserve, Banxico frequently does so and the FOMC just restarted what Scotiabank thinks will be a material easing campaign. United States tariffs and

uncertainty around USMCA trade agreement negotiations adds to the motivations to ease.

Recent data has been mixed as jobs and wages hold up quite firmly, but industrial output has fallen over the past couple of months.

The peso (MNX) has appreciated from about 20.8 to the US dollar (USD) in April to 18.4 now, added the bank. Such forces will nevertheless be accompanied by a weary eye turned toward core consumer price index inflation that has risen back to about 4.25% year over year in recent months.

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