Commerzbank on Overnight News

06:19 AM EDT, 09/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasury yields open close to Friday's highs, Bund and OAT futures extend sell-off. Nikkei rallies, e-minis rangebound. EUR drops below $1.175. Brent rises above $67/barrel.

Fed: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran says that disinflationary forces are "coming into play" and bring inflation down in the near-term. He adds that he sees no inflation from U.S. tariffs whatsoever and he sees rate cuts continuing for several months.

U.S.: President Donald Trump says the government may "very well" shut down on Oct. 1. Trump says the TikTok sale has China's blessing after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Trump administration will require a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications.

Geopolitics: The United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Portugal have recognized Palestine as an independent state.

==EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says inflation goal is reached, but uncertainty remains high.

ECB: Governing Council (GC) member Gediminas Simkus says rates should be cut in December to ensure that inflation and growth don't disappoint. GC member Yannis Stournaras says that for the moment "we're in a good equilibrium" and there is "no reason to act on rates." GC member Martins the Kazaks says next rate move doesn't need to be rushed, ECB can "easily look through small deviations from 2%." GC member Edward Scicluna says that rates are "fine where they are" even when considering downside risks to the economy.

EU: The European Commission wants to issue bonds equivalent to the value of frozen Russian assets (about 200 billion euros) to fund Ukraine aid, backed by guarantees of the member states (FAZ).

EU proposes sanctions against Chinese companies and others buying Russian oil.

Ratings: DBRS downgrades France to AA/stable. Fitch upgrades Italy to BBB+/stable, citing fiscal performance and a steadier political backdrop. S&P affirms Ireland at AA/positive. Moody's lowers outlook for Poland to AA/negative. DBRS affirms Finland at AA(high)/stable, upgrades Cyprus to A/stable.

Italy: Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti says that Italy's budget deficit may fall below 3% already this year.

==ASIA:

China: The central bank (PBoC) maintains one- and five-year LPR rat 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, as expected.

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