UBS Delays Bank of England Rate-Cut Call to February 2026

07:07 AM EDT, 09/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- UBS no longer expects the Bank of England to cut rates in November and now predicts the Monetary Policy Committee will hold steady for the rest of the year, with the next cut coming in February 2026.

By removing the November cut, UBS raised its forecast for the terminal rate to 3.25% from 3%, while keeping its end-2025 Bank Rate projection at 4%.

It still expects three 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, in February, April and July, to bring the rate to 3.25%, the bank said.

UBS noted it had been flagging the risk of a delay given that the Nov. 6 meeting will only have September consumer price data, expected to show a rise to 4%, and the U.K. Fall Budget is scheduled for Nov. 26.

A recent uptick in household inflation expectations in the BoE's Inflation Attitudes Survey and signs of slower disinflation from July CPI are also likely concerns for policymakers, UBS said.

With the final 2025 policy meeting on Dec. 18 lacking updated macro projections or a press conference, UBS expects the MPC to wait until February before resuming rate cuts, though a string of softer inflation readings and a benign budget could bring an earlier move.

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