Update On CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

02:09 PM EDT, 09/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- (Adding estimates for each data, where available)

In Canada, Ali Jaffery and Andrew Grantham noted, the central bank is expected on Wednesday to restart interest rate cuts with a 25bp move, and keep the door open to further reductions.

The CIBC duo suspect that the CPI data for August released the day before [Tuesday] the BoC meeting would need to surprise significantly to the upside to prevent such an initial rate move. They said that seems unlikely given recent weakness in the labour market and the recent run of fairly muted core inflation readings. CIBC forecasts CPI Core-Median to rise 3.1% year over year, in line with consensus, and CPI Core-Trim to rise 3% year over year, also in line with consensus.

Outside of that, the CIBC pair believe indicators for July growth will be mixed, with Manufacturing shipments and Wholesale sales data due out Monday pointing to increases, but July Retail Sales on Friday slipping back following a strong June. On Manufacturing, CIBC forecasts 1.7% versus a consensus 1.8%. For Wholesale it sees 1.2% compared to a consensus 1.3%. CIBC estimates total trade will be down 0.9%, and ex-auto will be down 0.7% for the month.

(Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are August Existing home Sales on Monday and August Housing Starts on Tuesday, with CIBC forecasting 275k versus a consensus 273.2k; followed by July Int' Security Transactions on Wednesday.)

Price: 109.54, Change: -0.49, Percent Change: -0.45

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