US Equity Indexes Rise After Downwardly Revised Nonfarm Payrolls Increase Fed Rate-Cut Odds

01:49 PM EDT, 09/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes rose in midday trading Tuesday as a downward revision in annual nonfarm payrolls lifted bets for interest rate cuts.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 21,830.4, with the S&P 500 also up 0.2% to 6,506.4 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.4% higher at 45,712.7. Energy and communication services were among the top gainers intraday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary estimate of its benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls is for a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs, or 0.6% of total employment, the BLS announced on Tuesday. BLS said the absolute average revision over the last 10 years is 0.2%.

"This (preliminary revision) was at the high end of a very wide range of analyst estimates," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO. "While the revision doesn't say much about what has happened since March, it suggests the labor market had less momentum heading into the trade war."

Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up nearly three basis points to 4.07% and the two-year yield climbed 4.1 basis points to 3.54%.

"The [BLS] report failed to extend the recent rally in Treasury markets and likely won't spur the Fed to slice rates aggressively next week, but it should cement a 25-basis-point trim, and could prod the FOMC to project a faster series of rate cuts than it expected in June," Guatieri said.

Markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability, versus 89% a day ago, that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 17, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining 8% odds are in favor of a 50-basis-point cut next week.

In company news, UnitedHealth Group's (UNH) shares jumped 9% intraday, the top gainer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after the company said its interim data suggest about 78% of its membership is in 4-star or higher plans, consistent with expectations and past performance.

Atlassian (TEAM) shares climbed 4.6% intraday, leading gainers on the Nasdaq, after the company said it is phasing out its data center products in favor of a new cloud platform.

Albemarle (ALB) shares slumped 11% intraday, the worst performer on the S&P 500, joining declining peers Lithium Americas (LAC) and SQM (SQM) due mainly to a report that a major Chinese lithium mine, operated by Contemporary Amperex Technology, is set to resume production after a period of suspension, Investing.com reported, citing the Chinese state media outlet Securities Times.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures climbed 0.9% to $62.83 a barrel.

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