PrintBMO Says Youth Jobless Rate to Be Key Focus in Friday's Canada Jobs Data
BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 09/05/25 06:17 AM EDT06:17 AM EDT, 09/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- One item in the August Canadian jobs data likely to draw a "lot of attention" will be the youth unemployment rate, Bank of Montreal (BMO) said.
Canada is set to release the Labour Force Survey for August at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
The youth unemployment rate reached 14.6% in July, the highest non-pandemic reading since 2010, the bank noted.
BMO pointed to rapid growth in the 15-24 age group, driven in part by international students, as a key factor. But a Canadian academic has argued the increase is demand-driven, citing a falling job vacancy rate.
The bank countered that the vacancy rate has been pushed lower by strong labour supply. Vacancies now stand at 2.8%, last seen in late 2017, when the jobless rate for those over 25 was 5.5%, just below today's 5.7%.
At that time, the youth jobless rate was 10.5%, about four points lower than now. BMO said this suggests that population growth over the past four years has directly pressured youth employment.
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