AI not affecting job market much so far, New York Fed says

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AI adoption not yet causing significant job losses, New York Fed blog says

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It is more likely to lead to retraining than layoffs, it says

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Future AI integration may lead to layoffs and reduced hiring, blog warns

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Rising adoption of artificial intelligence technology by firms in the Federal Reserve's New York district has not been much of a job-killer so far, the regional Fed bank said in a blog on Thursday.

"Businesses reported a notable increase in AI use over the past year, yet very few firms reported AI-induced layoffs," New York Fed economists wrote in the blog. "Indeed, for those already employed, our results indicate AI is more likely to result in retraining than job loss, similar to our findings from last year," and so far the technology does not point to "significant reductions in employment." There has been broad concern that AI could create major headwinds for hiring in the coming years, with the technology hitting highly-paid professional and managerial jobs the hardest. Investors are plowing cash into AI investments at a time when employment has already begun to show some softness, although job market changes related to AI will almost certainly play out over a long time horizon.

The New York Fed blog noted that the modest impact on jobs so far may not hold in the future. "Looking ahead, firms anticipate more significant layoffs and scaled-back hiring as they continue to integrate AI into their operations," New York Fed researchers wrote.

The New York Fed found that 40% of services firms used AI over the last year, up from 25% a year ago, while just shy of half of these types of firms plan to use the technology over the next six months. AI usage by factory operators rose to 26% of respondents, from 16% a year ago, the blog said, adding that a third of manufacturers expect to use AI in the next six months. (Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)