BMO Says Canada's July Trade Gap Seen Narrowing, Toronto Housing Slips

07:45 AM EDT, 09/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release international merchandise trade data for July at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, Bank of Montreal (BMO) said.

The trade deficit is expected to narrow to C$4.5 billion in July, though it would remain in the red for a sixth straight month, the bank said. The improvement would support gross domestic product early in the quarter, and along with the July flash GDP estimate showing a slight increase, should help the economy avoid a technical recession.

BMO said Toronto's housing market recovery stalled in August, with sales falling for the first time since early spring and prices slipping further. Sales dropped 1.8% in the month and remain about 30% below the past decade's seasonal norm.

New listings continued to climb, giving buyers more bargaining power, the bank said. Benchmark prices slipped 0.1% in the month and are down 5.2% in the past year. While trade war concerns with the United States might be easing, affordability remains an issue and will likely limit any recovery this year, BMO said.

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