Commerzbank Highlights Fed Signals, Euro Drop, Political Risks in Europe

06:30 AM EDT, 09/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank (CBK) in its "European Sunrise" note Friday said:

Markets: United States Treasuries were stable in late New York trading and in Asia after Wednesday's intraday rally. S&P futures were rangebound, e-minis supported, while Chinese equities fell as the government weighed cooling measures. The euro (EUR) falls below $1.166, while Brent crude dropped under $67.20 a barrel.

Federal Reserve: The Beige Book showed most districts reported little or no growth. Minneapolis Federal Reserve bank President Neel Kashkari said the breakeven hiring rate is about 75,000 a month. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic considered one rate cut appropriate for 2025.

President Donald Trump's Fed board nominee Stephen Miran is set to tell the Senate that the independence of monetary policy is a crucial element for the Fed's success, Commerzbank said.

Geopolitics: Trump said the U.S. could increase troop presence in Poland and hinted at further financial penalties on Russia.

Europe:

ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stressed the importance of central bank independence, saying it is not an obstacle to reasonably low interest rates.

BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the pace of quantitative tightening remains undecided, adding there is "considerably more doubt" about the timing of rate adjustments. BoE policymaker Alan Taylor said the United Kingdom economy is headed for a soft landing.

France: Socialists will meet Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on Thursday. Party leaders reiterated they won't support him, calling the decision "irreversible."

Germany: The coalition committee agreed to mobilize support for steel and aluminum industries but made no progress on filling a 35 billion euro budget gap in 2027. About 88% of Germans are dissatisfied with the government, while far-right AfD rose to a record 25% (ARD)

European Union: The bloc is advancing efforts to ratify a trade deal with Mercosur countries by year-end.

United Kingdom: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves played down the likelihood of an International Monetary Fund bailout or new taxes on property and banks.

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