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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 08/28/25 07:34 AM EDT

07:34 AM EDT, 08/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release current account figures for Q2 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The current account deficit is expected to balloon to over $18 billion, or $73 billion annualized and 2.3% of gross domestic product, in Q2 from $2.1 billion in Q1, the largest in nine years, due to plunging exports of tariffed steel, aluminum and autos, noted the bank.

This will set the stage for Friday's Q2 real GDP report, with the economy expected to contract for the first time in nearly two years after five straight quarterly gains of more than 2% annualized, stated BMO.

Layoffs in the three tariff-hit sectors are weakening the labor market, so keep an eye on the establishment survey of employment (SEPH) and the job vacancy rate for June out also at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, added the bank.

Industry payrolls have nearly ground to a halt in the past year (0.2% year over year to May, or 43,000) and the job vacancy rate is the lowest (2.7%) since 2017.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is firmer (C$1.376) against a softer US dollar (USD), according to BMO.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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