Tom Doe

Tom Doe, founder of Municipal Market Analytics, downplays his contribution to the muni industry saying he is "just a storyteller."

The "stories" Doe has told are mathematically based narratives providing insight on municipal bonds dating back to his tenure as an analyst and manager at Municipal Market Data from 1984 until it was sold to Thomson Reuters (TMSOF) in 1994; and continuing with his founding of MMA in 1995 and in the years since then.

His stories also include testifying before Congress about rising climate adaptation costs to cities, which he predicts will reach $1 trillion annually by the mid-2030s.

Doe, who once wanted to be a college president because of the variety involved in running a university, has no regrets.

"I have been very fortunate to contribute to a fascinating sector of the financial industry that is full of ambiguous issues and data," he said. "I am flattered to be included in the Hall of Fame, it is a wonderful capstone to my career."

Doe learned he was receiving the award just days before he began handing off day-to-day operations of MMA to his partners, Matt Fabian and Timothy Holler.

He will continue his involvement with MMA and remain on its board of directors.

MMA has had an outsized impact on the thinking behind muni market shifts as well as inventing respected analytical tools, like the consensus yield curve launched in 1999.

The multi-decade database Doe's firm created and updates regularly provides investors with insight into market technicals, helping to separate fleeting changes in sentiment from longer-term resets, said Sean McCarthy, Build America Mutual's chief executive officer, who nominated Doe for the Muni Hall of Fame.

The database includes one of the most comprehensive electronic records of defaults in the market.

"It's a deep data source," McCarthy said, adding that Doe "has put together a team including Matt Fabian and Lisa Washburn, who are some of the best analytical minds in our industry."

The firm produces multiple investor insight reports on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, including the Daily Strategist penned by Doe, until recently, and the Municipal Default Trends Report produced weekly by Fabian and Washburn.

From 2002 to 2005, Doe was on the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board during a transformative time for the regulatory agency. The board helped lower what Doe described as out-of-control costs and forced the resignation of then-CEO Christopher "Kit" Taylor, who was replaced a few years later by Lynette Kelly, who retired after a decade in 2019. Kelly oversaw the launch of the MSRB's Electronic Municipal Market Access website, which brought more transparency to the market.

But Doe says "the most impactful thing he did," came during an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

During a January 20, 2011, interview, Doe confidently contradicted a late 2010 prediction made in a 60 Minutes interview by Meredith Whitney, who runs her own investment research firm, that the $3 trillion municipal bond market would see as many as 50 to 100 sizable municipal bond defaults, involving hundreds of billions of dollars.

Whitney's prediction caused what Doe described as a "freefall," in the muni bond market: week-after-week of outflows and banks liquidating municipal bond portfolios.

Kernan asked guests Doe and a banker if the muni market was going to collapse.

The banker gave a non-committal answer, but Doe said he responded: "The chances of that happening are nil."

The market rallied after the interview ? and Doe received 50 to 100 emails thanking him for helping to bring sanity back to the market.

Two months later, municipal bonds turned positive again, he said.

McCarthy called Doe's comments during the CNBC interview, a "fire hose on a fire," but adds Doe's contributions are so broad he would be remiss if he singled out just one.

"His body of work has been comprehensive and moved the needle significantly in the muni bond market," McCarthy said.

At the same time, McCarthy said, he couldn't nominate Doe without "noting he gave the defining rebuttal to Meredith's inaccurate and overblown remarks on the municipal bond industry."

"If there is one event you should remember him for, it's that," McCarthy said.