National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For Next Week

03:25 PM EDT, 08/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank, ahead of the release of Q2 GDP data next Friday, noted household consumption, residential investment, government spending, and inventory accumulation are all expected to contribute to GDP growth during the quarter. However, the bank said, these positive factors will likely be offset by a sizeable negative contribution from international trade, with the goods trade balance suffering from a collapse in exports following the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. administration. A decline in business investment in machinery and equipment could also weigh on the headline figure, which could show an annualized contraction of 0.6%, it added.

Industry data published at the same time could, National Bank said, show a 0.1% expansion of economic output in June, with positive contributions from retail and wholesale trade having likely been only partially offset by a decrease in manufacturing.

On other data, National Bank said balance of payments data published on Thursday for the second quarter could show the current account deficit widening to an all-time high of C$21.50 billion, reflecting significant deteriorations in the goods and services trade balances.

National Bank will also keep an eye out for the publication of the June Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH). On the central bank front, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to deliver a speech on

Tuesday at the Bank of Mexico's 100th Anniversary seminar.

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