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CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 08/22/25 02:10 PM EDT

02:10 PM EDT, 08/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- According to Avery Shenfeld, CIBC sees Q2 GDP coming in next Friday a "bit better" than the Bank of Canada's last projection, but with a larger dip than the consensus or what the monthly GDP series has been tracking. Shenfeld noted quarterly and monthly GDP reports often show a divergence, and said the BoC's economists have a "reasonably good" track record in anticipating the direction of that gap. CIBC sees June GDP coming in at 0.1% compared to a consensus 0.2%, but also sees Q2 GDP at -0.8% versus a consensus -0.3%.

Less widely watched, but still of interest, will be Thursday's payrolls report (SEPH), which has been showing more weakness, and a broader mix of industries with employment softness, than the more timely LFS (household survey) data.

(Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are a speech from BoC Goveror Tiff Macklem in Mexico City on Tuesday; the auction of $5.2 billion in 10-YR Canadas on Wednesday and $6 billion in 2-YR Canadas on Thursday; and Q2 Current Account data on Thursday, with CIBC forecasting -$21 billion versus a consensus estimate of -$18.73 billion.)

Price: 101.52, Change: -0.08, Percent Change: -0.08

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