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External Factors Dominate Swiss Franc Outlook, Says UBS

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 08/22/25 08:08 AM EDT

08:08 AM EDT, 08/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Switzerland's data calendar is light next week, with

employment figures on Monday, Q2 gross domestic product on Thursday, and the KOF Leading Indicator on Friday offering a snapshot of the economy, said UBS.

However, none of these releases will reflect the impact of the recently implemented 39% United States tariff, as they won't yet capture investment decisions post-tariff hike, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

In recent quarters, the Swiss franc (CHF) has been driven more by external factors than domestic data -- a trend likely to persist, stated UBS.

However, with high tariffs now in place, market participants will need to start monitoring domestic economic developments more closely going forward to gauge the Swiss central bank's (SNB) potential response, added UBS.

The most significant potential mover for the franc in the coming weeks remains progress in Russia-Ukraine peace

talks, in the bank's view. While the probability of a comprehensive peace deal is low, such an outcome would support the euro (EUR) and remove a major geopolitical tail risk, potentially weakening demand for perceived safe-haven currencies like the franc.

This combination could push EUR/CHF in the direction of the March highs at 0.965, according to UBS.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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