Equities Little Changed as Wall Street Awaits Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

04:56 PM EDT, 08/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Equities ended little changed on Monday, with traders awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and retail earnings due later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% to 44,911.8. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finished near the flat line at 6,449.2 and 21,629.8, respectively. Among sectors, real estate led decliners, while industrials and consumer discretionary paced gainers.

Powell's speech is scheduled for Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Market participants will be watching his comments for any hints on a reduction in the Fed's benchmark lending rate at its meeting next month.

"Powell will likely address the large downward revisions to job growth in the July employment report," Goldman Sachs said in a note emailed to MT Newswires on Monday. "With the labor market already near the limit of what could be called maximum employment, we suspect that weak job growth and concern about further downward revisions and downside risks have already convinced the Fed leadership to resume rate cuts."

Data released at the start of the month showed that the world's biggest economy added fewer jobs than projected in July, while gains in the previous two months were revised sharply lower, suggesting that labor market conditions were weakening.

Markets are currently pricing in an 83% probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points next month, with the remaining odds in the favor of another pause, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Last week's consumer inflation data showed a slowdown in price increases in July on a sequential basis.

Morgan Stanley said that the Fed is likely to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged this year, but weaker jobs data for August may tip the scales toward a policy easing next month. The nonfarm payrolls report for August is due on Sept. 5.

"Our baseline call has been that the Fed will remain on hold this year, and last week's (consumer price index) print has not changed that view," Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter wrote in a note. "As we have noted, average tariff rates are still ramping up given the implementation delays, and so their cumulative effect on prices could be more lagged."

The Fed is scheduled to release minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged, though governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman preferred a quarter-percentage-point reduction.

US Treasury yields were higher, with the 10-year rate rising 1.7 basis points to 4.34% and two-year rate advancing 1.5 basis points to 3.78%

Major retailers Walmart (WMT) , Home Depot (HD) , TJX (TJX) and Target (TGT) are scheduled to report their latest quarterly financial results later this week, along with other companies.

About 92% of S&P 500 companies have logged quarterly results in the current cycle, with earnings up 11.3% from a year earlier on revenue growth of 5.9%, Oppenheimer Asset Management said Monday. The brokerage last Monday reported growth rates of 11.4% and 6%, respectively, based on financials reported by about 91% of the index constituents.

In company news, Intel (INTC) shares were down 3.7%, the second-biggest decliner on the S&P 500. Bloomberg News reported that the Trump administration is discussing taking a roughly 10% stake in the chipmaker, according to a White House official and other sources.

Dayforce (DAY) shares jumped 26%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, following a report by Bloomberg that buyout firm Thoma Bravo is in discussions to acquire the human resources management software provider.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 0.8% at $63.32 a barrel in Monday late-afternoon trade. "Oil rose after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India's purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine and had to stop," D.A. Davidson said in a client note.

In economic news, homebuilder confidence in the US unexpectedly fell in August amid high mortgage rates and persistent supply-side challenges, according to National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo data.

"Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed's monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Gold was down 0.1% at $3,378.20 per troy ounce, while silver rose 0.3% to $38.08 per ounce.

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