Scotiabank Previews This Week's CPI Data in Canada

12:16 PM EDT, 08/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada refreshes inflation tracking with the July consumer price index report due on Tuesday, at 8:30 a.m. ET, noted Scotiabank.

It's one of two CPI readings before the next Bank of Canada decision on Sept. 17, with the next one arriving the day before, such that not much rests on just this one reading, stated Scotiabank.

The bank's estimate is for a 0.5% month-over-month seasonally unadjusted rise in headline CPI based on limited observables such as gasoline prices, seasonal influences, and some housing and food price tracking.

What will matter, however, is what will happen to the average of the two preferred core inflation readings used by the BoC that have remained "hot" and are impossible to estimate in month-over-month seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) terms, pointed out Scotiabank. They have averaged 3.4% month-over-month SAAR over the past three months.

Service price inflation has been trending warmly, the breadth of price pressures has been rising, and key may be any early tariff effects on some goods prices both directly -- through Canada's limited retaliatory measures -- and indirectly through supply chain effects.

The core measures exclude tariffs, but not the possible pass-through incidence effects.

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