Canada's Housing Starts Rise in July, Notes TD

09:31 AM EDT, 08/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian housing starts came in at a "solid" rate of 294,100 annualized units in July, rising 4% month over month, or 11,000, from June's already-elevated level of 283,500, said TD after Monday's Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data.

Meanwhile, the six-month moving average was "healthy" at 263,000 units.

In urban markets, July's firm performance was driven by the multi-family sector, where starts advanced 12,000 to 231,000 units. Single-detached starts were flat at 42,000 units.

Urban starts were up in seven of 10 provinces:

-- Ontario (+16,000 to 74,000 units) and the Atlantic (+12,000 to 29,000 units) were the largest contributors to July's improvement. However, Ontario's level of starts remained relatively low in July. In contrast, homebuilding activity was extremely elevated in the Atlantic last month. Starts also increased in Quebec (+6,000 to 56,000 units).

-- Starts dropped in the Prairies (-11,000 to 60,000 units), weighed down by Alberta. They also pulled back significantly in British Columbia (-10,000 to 54,000 units).

In July, starts rose to their highest level since November 2021 -- during the pandemic-era surge in Canadian housing markets, noted the bank. The" hearty" trend in homebuilding is being underpinned by the rental market, where gains have likely been supported by powerful population growth in the past and government financing programs targeting this sector.

Building permits suggest that starts could remain near these sturdy levels in the near-term, stated TD.

However, the bank anticipates some cooling taking place in 2026. Population growth is slowing and asking rents are dropping in several jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, building activity in the ownership market is likely to remain "subdued," weighed on by past declines in pre-construction home sales, added TD.

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