National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For Next Week

03:25 PM EDT, 08/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank noted Friday the main event next week will be the release of the July CPI report on Tuesday.

Although gasoline prices fell during the month, National Bank said this may not have been enough to prevent a 0.4% monthly increase in the overall index (not seasonally adjusted). If this scenario materializes, it noted, the annual inflation rate could ease by one-tenth of a percentage point, reaching 1.8%. Looking at the Bank of Canada's core measures, National Bank added the CPI-med may have remained stable at 3.1% on an annual basis, while the CPI-trim may have risen from 3.0% to 3.1%.

The June retail sales report next Friday will also be closely watched. Judging by the auto sales data released

earlier, motor vehicle and parts dealers may have contributed negatively to the headline number, which could still show a 1.5% gain. National Bank said. This could reflect significant increases in categories associated with the real estate market, such as furniture and building materials, as home sales rebounded during the month. Ex-auto outlays may have been even stronger than the headline number, expanding by 1.7%, it added.

An update on the housing market will also be provided with the release of housing starts data for July, on Monday. National Bank said based on the residential permits data released thus far, the latter may have eased back to 270K in the month (seasonally adjusted and annualized), led by decreases in both the single-family and multifamily segments.

National Bank will also keep an eye out for the August release of the CFIB Business Barometer and the July release Thursday of the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI).

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