New York Manufacturing Growth Hits Highest Since November, Optimism Falls

01:29 PM EDT, 08/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- New York manufacturing growth reached its highest level since November, though firms turned less optimistic sequentially about future conditions, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Friday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index jumped to 11.9 in August from 5.5 last month, with activity rising for a second straight month, the Fed branch said. The consensus was for a flat reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The index for new orders surged to 15.4 this month from 2 in July, while shipments rose to 12.2 from 11.5. The employment index fell to 4.4 from 9.2.

"Delivery times were significantly longer, and supply availability was somewhat worse," the New York Fed said. Input and selling price gains eased month-on-month.

Six months out, the index for business activity dropped to 16 in August from 24.1 last month. The future new order and shipment indexes also registered declines, while capital spending plans were "soft," the survey showed.

"While firms expect business conditions to improve, optimism edged down compared to last month," said Richard Deitz, economic research adviser at the New York Fed.

Over the next six months, two-thirds of respondents project input prices to "pick up further," the regional Fed said.

Earlier this week, official data showed that US producer prices rose at the fastest pace in about three years in July, while consumer inflation slowed down on a sequential basis. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said the central bank should maintain its monetary policy for now as inflation remains "too high."

Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 87% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower interest rates by 25 basis point next month, with the remaining odds in the favor of another pause, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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