Uncertainty Isn't A Good Reason for Inaction From Bank of Canada, Says Rosenberg Research

08:17 AM EDT, 08/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Wednesday's Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations reiterated that uncertainty around trade and concern about sticky inflation are keeping the BoC sidelined for now, said Rosenberg Research.

"That is nutty," stated Rosenberg Research. If anything, the uncertainty, by freezing hiring and capital expenditure plans, should be incentivizing the Canadian central bank to get off the sidelines.

There is a surprising divergence of views on the Governing Council, with some members believing that rates have fallen enough -- that the prior cuts "may have already provided sufficient support" to the economy, and see the economy as showing "resilience."

Meanwhile, employment is contracting, real gross domestic product is flatlining and still declining in per capita terms, the most credit-sensitive sectors of the Canadian economy are begging for more relief, and it's clear that the recent inflation readings resided somewhere between an "aberration and noise" on what is still a fundamentally downward trend, noted Rosenberg.

At the same time, the jobless rate is hooking up as disinflationary economic slack is building up again. "Thankfully," there were some on the Council who see things the way Rosenberg does -- "others highlighted that further monetary policy support would likely be needed given the estimated amount and persistence of slack in the economy, especially if the labour market softened further."

More BoC cuts are coming, in Rosenberg's view, so it advises to stay bullish on the front end of the Government of Canada (GoC) bond curve -- at least "moderately" so -- and bearish on the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie), which is the worst-performing G-10 currency so far this year.

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