SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 08/15/25 05:45 AM EDT

05:45 AM EDT, 08/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:

-- US dollar (USD) steady before retail sales, United States Treasury yields off producer price index high, 10s at 4.277%, support 4.20% and resistance 4.35%/38%. OIS pricing -23bps for September FOMC. The U.S./Russia summit in Alaska starts at 9 p.m. CET. European Union Coreper debrief scheduled on Saturday.

-- Japan Q2 gross domestic product growth 0.3% quarter over quarter and 1.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate, above forecast. PCE deflator slows to 3.0% year over year. Private consumption +0.2%, business spending +1.3%, net exports +0.3%. OIS pricing +17bps for Bank of Japan by year-end.

-- China July activity data weak, boost case for more stimulus: retail sales slow to 3.7% year over year, industrial production moderates to 5.7%, FAI year-to-date (YTD) falls to 1.6% versus 2.8%. Downturn in property investment YTD worsened to -12.0%.

-- Day ahead: U.S. retail sales, preliminary Michigan confidence, Empire manufacturing survey, Canada manufacturingg sales.

-- Nikkei +1.7%, EUR 10-year IRS +2bps at 2.69%, Brent crude -0.4% at $66.6/barrel, Gold +0.3% at $3,3402oz.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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