US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq futures at record highs on September rate cut hopes

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 08/13/25 07:35 AM EDT

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Futures up: Dow 0.30%, S&P 500 0.20%, Nasdaq 0.24%

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Traders price in 98% chance of 25 bps Fed rate cut in September

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CBOE volatility index hits lowest level since January

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CoreWeave (CRWV) falls after larger-than-expected Q2 net loss

(Updates with analyst comment, Eli Lilly (LLY) drug launch)

By Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy

Aug 13 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes were pinned at record highs on Wednesday, buoyed by increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve could restart its monetary policy easing cycle next month.

Signs that U.S. taxes on imports have not fully filtered into headline consumer prices sparked a relief rally on Wall Street in the previous session, with the benchmark S&P 500 marking its first record high close in two weeks.

Despite core inflation marking its biggest jump since the start of the year, investors factored in recent weakness in the job market and a shake-up at the Federal Reserve as they leaned in favor of a potential dovish move by the central bank in September.

Interest rate futures now reflect a 98% chance of a 25 basis points interest rate cut, according to data compiled by LSEG, compared with 88.8% on Tuesday. The central bank last lowered borrowing costs in December.

"A benign CPI report, coming on the heels of weak non-farm payrolls, has strengthened the case for a September Fed cut," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com.

"However, market euphoria could be challenged as stagflation risks persist, potentially eroding consumption and hurting advertising - a key revenue stream for many tech giants."

At 7:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 132 points, or 0.30%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 13.25 points, or 0.20% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 58.25 points, or 0.24%.

The CBOE volatility index, popularly referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, dropped to 14.46 - its lowest since January.

Rate-sensitive banking stocks such as Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C/PN) were marginally higher in premarket trading after the broader sector logged its biggest daily rise in three months on Tuesday.

Analysts said a steepening yield curve following the inflation report could help bank earnings as lenders could borrow cheap and lend at a higher rate.

Later in the day, investors will scrutinize remarks of a number of policymakers, especially Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee - a Federal Open Market Committee voting member this year.

Earnings are also in focus. CoreWeave (CRWV), which is backed by Nvidia (NVDA), lost 8.3% after the AI data center operator reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly net loss.

Eyes are also on developments surrounding the China revenue-sharing deal the U.S. government signed with chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which the White House said could be expanded to others in the sector.

Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 1.3% after the drugmaker

launched

the easy-to-use injector pen of its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Mounjaro, in India.

Venture Global (VG) gained 8.5% after the LNG major won a legal battle against Shell over its failure to deliver liquefied natural gas under long-term contracts starting in 2023.

Crude prices traded around $60 per barrel ahead of a virtual meeting between Donald Trump and European leaders on the Russo-Ukraine conflict, two days before the U.S. president meets Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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