UBS Sees Two 25bps Rate Cuts in Australia After This Week's Reduction; Comments on Australian Dollar

07:35 AM EDT, 08/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25bps to3.6% at the start of the week, as widely expected, said UBS.

The press release was largely unchanged from July and the bank keeps its cash rate forecast of two follow-up 25bps cuts in November and February 2026.

UBS added that it will review its call after the labor data on Aug. 14.

Before the meeting, the bank said that RBA Governor Michele Bullock's press conference was the most important thing, and here she expressed confidence that the 2.5% inflation target could be achieved "with a couple more cuts."

This was backed up by the Statement of Monetary Policy, where trimmed mean consumer price index forecasts were kept steady at 2.6% year over year until Q2 2027 and end-2027 was added at 2.5%.

UBS continues to like selling the downside in AUD/USD, and likes to be long at 0.64 or below.

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