July Inflation Validates Colombia's Central Bank Continued Caution, Says Deutsche Bank

12:15 PM EDT, 08/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Colombia's July inflation reading came in above expectations, pushing annual headline inflation up while maintaining core inflation stable, said Deutsche Bank.

July's inflation came in at 0.28% month over month and at 4.90% year over year. Bloomberg's consensus was for 0.20% month over month and 4.82% year over year. Core inflation was 0.23% month over month and 4.79% year over year.

The projections suggest that annual headline inflation could see a moderate uptick relative to the July level, while the decline of core inflation will likely resume -- albeit gradually -- in late Q3, stated the bank.

Deutsche Bank foresees headline and core inflation closing the year at 5.1% and 4.5%, respectively.

In Deutsche Bank's view, the performance of inflation in July validates the cautious position followed by Colombia's central bank (BanRep) majority. The bank thinks that a window of opportunity would open in October should the envisioned decline in core inflation materialize, especially if the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance by then.

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