ING Comments on Euro, Sterling, Romania's Leu

06:28 AM EDT, 08/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The euro continues to be affected -- although not in great magnitude -- for now by the Russia-United States headlines, said ING.

The bank expects Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index to bring EUR/USD back below 1.16, with risks skewed to a test of the 1.150 support if the Vladimir Putin-Donald Trump summit yields few results on Friday.

The United Kingdom released July jobs data on Tuesday showing that payrolls fell by just 8,000 -- the best since January -- and June was revised up to -26,000 from -41,000. This aligns with recent hiring surveys showing signs of recovery.

While the labor market is cooler than earlier this year and softer than in other major economies, there's no clear signal yet for the Bank of England to accelerate rate cuts, stated ING. As seen in August, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee remains relatively unfazed by jobs data.

The bank is still expecting a cut in November, but stronger payrolls or hotter inflation could delay further easing.

Sterling (GBP) is trading on the strong side early Tuesday as jobs figures were seen as slightly upbeat, and EUR/GBP may well test 0.860 in the coming days. Nevertheless, ING expects a return to 0.870 later in the summer on the back of the bank's BoE call.

If the Romanian central bank (NBR) takes a hawkish stance or inflation surprises on the upside in the coming months, liquidity management will likely be the NBR's first line of defense, and the bank could see a renewed tightening of liquidity and a rise in foreign exchange forwards.

For now, however, the EUR/RON spot rate remains firm at around 5.070, and the situation appears stable, at least for the summer, according to ING.

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