UBS Previews Next Week's Policy Meeting at Sweden Central Bank

09:59 AM EDT, 08/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- After the Riksbank lowered the policy rate by 25bps in June to 2.0% and maintained an easing bias, UBS said it expects Sweden's central bank to remain on hold at its upcoming meeting on Aug. 20.

Growth data since the last meeting were mixed at best, justifying the easing bias, but inflation remains elevated with headline CPIF at 3.0% year over year and CPIF excluding energy at 3.1% in July.

The inflation uptick since the June data led the market to trim rate-cut expectations, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

UBS thinks the Riksbank will eventually look through the largely seasonal pickup in inflation but will want to wait for more data to confirm there is no shift in underlying price pressures.

As a consequence, the bank's view is that it will keep rates unchanged in August, but cut again by 25bps in September when it will publish new forecasts. At the time of writing the UBS report, markets were pricing -3bps of cuts for August, -12bps (cumulative) for September and -21bps by year-end.

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