US Equity Investors to Look for Impact of Inflation on Rate-Cut Outlook, Ukraine-Russia Truce This Week

06:14 AM EDT, 08/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will focus on inflation and President Donald Trump's high-stakes diplomacy with Russia while a key China trade-tariff deadline approaches.

* The consumer price index is expected to rise by 2.8% year-over-year in July from 2.7% in the previous month. The headline rate is, however, forecast to slip 0.2% month-over-month from 0.3% in June. The Core CPI prints will likely gain sequentially and year-over-year.

* The odds for a 25 basis-point cut in interest rates in September stood at 88% as of Monday, versus 40% a month ago.

"The combination of a [recent] softer payroll number with concerns of tariff-related inflation could be the recipe for a correction, especially in the seasonally weak third quarter," The Star, in a Monday news report, cited a Morgan Stanley note.

* Producer price inflation, University of Michigan's inflation expectations/consumer sentiment data, and retail sales are due this week.

* Ahead of Friday's summit in Alaska between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, CNN reported the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union said in a joint statement Saturday that "we remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force."

* Without a confirmation of the Stockholm deal, the US and China are set to once again place record-high tariffs on each other's imports starting Aug. 12. Reports indicated that China is seeking US concessions on export controls for AI chips as part of a trade deal, potentially ahead of a summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping, according to a Trading Economics report.

* FactSet's Q2 blended earnings estimate, which combines reported results with remaining consensus, currently implies an increase of 11.6%, according to a D A Davidson note. Q2 revenue rose 6.3%, above the consensus of 4.2%, with 10 of the 11 sectors tracking ahead of estimates.

* Quarterly earnings due this week include Cisco Systems (CSCO) , Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Deer & Co. (DE).

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