National Bank Sees CPI Reports As Key To Bank of Canada's September Rates Decision

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 08/08/25 10:37 AM EDT

10:37 AM EDT, 08/08/2025 (MT Newswires) -- When it comes to the Bank of Canada, National Bank noted the central bank retained an easing bias in July, acknowledging rate cuts may be in store if price pressures can be contained. It said while today's jobs data don't directly speak to inflation, a softer labour market should help limit price increases going forward. "Of course," National Bank added, "a weakening labour market generally makes remaining sidelined uncomfortable. While employment is one of the four indicators guiding monetary policy, it's the next two CPI reports that should have the most impact on the September decision. We think today's data warrant higher September rate cut odds but if the next CPI report comes out soft, we should see the meeting's easing probability rise above 50%."

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