July US Median Inflation Expectations Rise for Short Term, Unchanged for Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

11:20 AM EDT, 08/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth rose to a 3.1% gain in July from a 3.0% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Thursday.

The median inflation expectations for the three-year period stood at a 3% gain for the third consecutive month but accelerated to a 2.9% gain from a 2.6% gain for five years ahead.

The median inflation uncertainty slowed to 3.5% from 3.7% in the one-year horizon and slowed to 3.3% from 3.4% for the three-year outlook.

Median home price change expectations remained at a 3% gain for the third straight month while home price uncertainty slowed to 3.8% from 3.9% in the previous month.

The median one-year expectation for commodity price growth was unchanged for food but declined for all other components which include gas, medical care, cost of college education, gold and a particularly large slowdown for rent.

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