TREASURIES-Treasury yields hit 3-month low in aftermath of jobs report, Fed resignation

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 08/03/25 10:33 PM EDT

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US 2-year yields drop as traders bet on Fed rate cuts

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Jobs data shows crack in US labour market

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Investors weigh Trump firing Labor department official

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Fed Gov Kugler's resignation opens door for Trump to reshape Fed

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE, Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields slipped to their lowest in three months on Monday on expectations the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as soon as September after a weak jobs report, and as investors weighed the surprise resignation of a Fed governor.

U.S. President Donald Trump fired a top Labor Department official on Friday after the employment market data showed weak jobs growth, while the departure of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler offered Trump the chance to reshape the Fed.

U.S. two-year yields, which are tied to the Fed's monetary policy, hit 3.659% in early trading on Monday, the lowest since May 1. Yields dropped 24 basis points (bps) on Friday, their largest daily fall in a year.

The benchmark 10-year yield was steady at 4.245%, hovering close to Friday's five-week low.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. employment growth was weaker than expected in July while the nonfarm payrolls count for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 jobs, stoking investor concern about the integrity of economic data and the Fed's ability to read the true state of the economy.

Investors responded by increasing the odds of the Fed resuming interest rate cuts from its next meeting in September. Traders are pricing in an 82.5% chance of a rate cut now, compared to 61% a week earlier, CME FedWatch's tool showed.

"With two dissenters to the Fed hold decision at the recent Fed meeting, the pressure intensifies for the Fed to consider a more dovish monetary policy," said Harun Thilak, head of global capital markets at Validus Risk Management.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman were two dissenting governors to last week's decision by the Federal Reserve Open Committee to keep rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% target range.

They said on Friday they did so largely due to rising concerns about the job market, in statements made public just ahead of the release of hiring data that bolstered their position.

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief macro strategist at Bank of Singapore, expects the Fed to wait for more data, noting that inflation was rising while weak payrolls growth could be due to both lower demand for and supply of labour.

"But the risks of earlier rate cuts are rising, weakening the USD while keeping Treasury yields volatile," he said.

Kugler did not attend last week's rate-setting meeting and will leave the central bank on August 8 to return to Georgetown University as a professor. Trump will select a governor to replace Kugler for the remainder of her term, which was scheduled to end on January 31, 2026.

The greenback recovered some of its losses against the Japanese currency on Monday, last trading 0.26% higher at 147.78 yen. The euro fell 0.14% to $1.1569 . Against a basket of currencies, the dollar edged up 0.15% to 98.813, after sliding more than 1% on Friday.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Kate Mayberry)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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