UBS Now Sees China's GDP Growth at 4.7% This Year From Earlier 4% Estimate

12:28 PM EDT, 07/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Exports resilience, the boost from trade-in subsidies on a low base, earlier issuance of government bonds, and implementation of planned policy support underpinned H1 GDP growth in China, said UBS.

The bank still expects economic growth to decelerate in H2 -- especially in Q4 -- as exports may turn to year-over-year contraction, property downturn continues, and consumption growth weakens. Additional policy stimulus will likely be data-dependent and modest in scale.

Overall, UBS upgrades its 2025 full-year GDP forecast to 4.7% versus 4% previously, with quarterly growth at 4.7% year over year in Q3 and below 4% year over year in Q4. The bank sees slightly more consumer price index deflationary pressure in H2, bringing full-year CPI down to -0.2%.

The currency (CNY) may strengthen in the near term, but growth deceleration and tariff-related uncertainties may take USDCNY to 7.1-7.2 at end-2025, aded UBS. Key risks to the bank's new baseline forecast stem from the progress of the United States-China trade talks, the timing and scale of additional policy stimulus and the development of the property downturn.

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