SocGen Previews Next Week's ECB Policy Meeting

11:26 AM EDT, 07/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale said it expects no policy change at the European Central Bank's July 24 policy meeting.

The data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach used by the ECB remains firmly in place, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

SocGen retains September as the time for the next cut but sees a risk that the data and United States tariffs -- and counter tariffs -- may not be clear-cut by then, clouding the outlook.

The end of the year is likely to be more challenging for the ECB, as downward-drifting headline inflation then could drag down inflation expectations, stated SocGen.

While the ECB believes its updated strategy puts it in a good place to respond to risk and uncertainty, the fundamental question of when to act, whether by pre-emptively leaning against inflation deviations or by a 'steady hand' approach, remains unclear, added the bank.

Moving forward, unanimous policy decisions may be a thing of the past, with inflation expectations increasingly in focus, according to SocGen.

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