Canada's Housing Starts Top Expectations in June, Says TD

09:45 AM EDT, 07/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian housing starts came in at a healthy rate of 283,700 annualized units in June, following like-sized gains in April and May, noted TD after Wednesday's data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Meanwhile, the six-month moving average of starts moved swiftly higher by 3.6% month over month to 253,100 units.

In urban markets, June's performance was evenly split across the multi-family and single-detached sectors, with the former moving higher by 421 units to 219,000, while the latter grew by a touch less to 42,700 units.

The stronger-than-expected print was narrowly based, with urban starts only up in three of 10 provinces:

-- Starts in British Columbia did the heavy lifting (+28,000 to 64,200 units), while Atlantic provinces inched higher by 205,000 led by small gains in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Meanwhile, starts fell in Ontario (-9,300 to 59,000 units) and Quebec (-8,000 units to 50,700 units).

- Starts also dropped in the Prairies (-10,000 to 71,000 units), weighed down by Alberta (-5,900 to 61,300 units).

June's housing starts surpassed expectations, helping Q2 starts growth notch a record gain, stated TD. This should provide a near-term tailwind for residential investment, buffering weakness in other areas of the Canadian economy that have been put under stress in the past few months.

Near-term homebuilding can likely maintain solid levels given elevated building permits, but wthe bank expects some of this momentum to cool.

Oversupply in key markets combined with slower population growth is weighing on rents, while high construction costs and near-term economic uncertainty may weigh on sales activity, added TD.

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